Population size and composition
Based on the 2009 Population and Housing Census, the county population is 1,152,282 comprising 550,464 males and 601,818 females respectively. This population is projected at 1,226,873 in 2012 consisting of 536,062 males and 640,811 females. With a growth rate of 2.1%, the population is estimated to be 1,306,652 in 2015 with 624,171 males and 682,481 females and is projected at 1,362,779 with 650,982 males and 711,797 females by 2017.Tables 1 shows population projections for the county by age cohorts and by gender respectively.
Table 1: Population projection by Age Cohort
2009 |
2012 |
2015 |
2017 |
|||||||||
Age Group |
M |
F |
T |
M |
F |
T |
M |
F |
T |
M |
F |
T |
0–4 |
97,645 |
96,729 |
194,374 |
104,001 |
103,025 |
207,025 |
110,763 |
109,724 |
220,488 |
115,521 |
114,437 |
229,959 |
5–9 |
85,748 |
84,786 |
170,534 |
91,329 |
90,305 |
181,634 |
97,268 |
96,177 |
193,445 |
101,446 |
100,308 |
201,754 |
10-14 |
77,141 |
76,753 |
153,894 |
82,162 |
81,749 |
163,911 |
87,505 |
87,065 |
174,569 |
91,263 |
90,804 |
182,068 |
15-19 |
66,682 |
68,192 |
134,874 |
71,022 |
72,630 |
143,653 |
75,641 |
77,353 |
152,994 |
78,890 |
80,676 |
159,566 |
20-24 |
46,460 |
64,682 |
111,142 |
49,484 |
68,892 |
118,376 |
52,702 |
73,372 |
126,074 |
54,966 |
76,524 |
131,489 |
25-29 |
36,163 |
47,985 |
84,148 |
38,517 |
51,108 |
89,625 |
41,021 |
54,432 |
95,453 |
42,783 |
56,770 |
99,553 |
30-34 |
29,490 |
33,742 |
63,232 |
31,409 |
35,938 |
67,348 |
33,452 |
38,275 |
71,727 |
34,889 |
39,919 |
74,808 |
35-39 |
24,162 |
29,261 |
53,423 |
25,735 |
31,166 |
56,900 |
27,408 |
33,192 |
60,600 |
28,585 |
34,618 |
63,203 |
40-44 |
17,569 |
20,529 |
38,098 |
18,713 |
21,865 |
40,578 |
19,929 |
23,287 |
43,216 |
20,785 |
24,287 |
45,073 |
45-49 |
18,805 |
21,571 |
40,376 |
20,029 |
22,975 |
43,004 |
21,331 |
24,469 |
45,800 |
22,248 |
25,520 |
47,768 |
50-54 |
14,314 |
15,929 |
30,243 |
15,246 |
16,966 |
32,211 |
16,237 |
18,069 |
34,306 |
16,935 |
18,845 |
35,780 |
55-59 |
10,690 |
10,719 |
21,409 |
11,386 |
11,417 |
22,802 |
12,126 |
12,159 |
24,285 |
12,647 |
12,681 |
25,328 |
60-64 |
8,351 |
8,696 |
17,047 |
8,895 |
9,262 |
18,157 |
9,473 |
9,864 |
19,337 |
9,880 |
10,288 |
20,168 |
65-69 |
5,255 |
6,061 |
11,316 |
5,597 |
6,455 |
12,053 |
5,961 |
6,875 |
12,836 |
6,217 |
7,171 |
13,388 |
70-74 |
4,501 |
5,661 |
10,162 |
4,794 |
6,029 |
10,823 |
5,106 |
6,422 |
11,527 |
5,325 |
6,697 |
12,022 |
75-79 |
3,096 |
3,753 |
6,849 |
3,298 |
3,997 |
7,295 |
3,512 |
4,257 |
7,769 |
3,663 |
4,440 |
8,103 |
80+ |
4,175 |
6,602 |
10,777 |
4,447 |
7,032 |
11,478 |
4,736 |
7,489 |
12,225 |
4,939 |
7,811 |
12,750 |
550,464 |
601,818 |
1,152,282 |
586,062 |
640,811 |
1,226,873 |
624,171 |
682,481 |
1,306,653 |
650,982 |
711,797 |
1,362,779 |
Source: Provincial Planning Office
It is estimated that in 2015 the total population in the county shall have risen from 1,226,873 to 1,306,653 with an increase of 79,780. In 2017, the population is estimated at 1,362,779. This increase will call for an expansion of educational and health facilities. The school going population will increase by 13.6% and 34.7% in 2015 and 2017 respectfully with girls being the majority.
Population projections for selected Age Groups
The selected age groups in the county are, children under 1, and children under 5, primary school age, Secondary school age, youth population, reproductive age, labour force and the aged population .The projections for these groups are presented in table 2 below.
Table 2: Population Projections for Selected Age Groups
|
2009 census |
2012 projected |
2015 projected |
2017 projected |
||||||||
Age Group |
M |
F |
T |
M |
F |
T |
M |
F |
T |
M |
F |
T |
Under 1 |
21,990 |
21,844 |
43,834 |
23,464 |
23,309 |
46,773 |
26,666 |
26,489 |
53,155 |
31,606 |
31,396 |
63,002 |
Under 5 |
106,751 |
105,872 |
212,623 |
113,909 |
112,971 |
226,880 |
129,450 |
128,384 |
257,834 |
153,431 |
152,168 |
305,599 |
Primary School age (6-13) |
141,557 |
151,628 |
293,185 |
151,049 |
161,795 |
312,843 |
171,657 |
183,870 |
355,527 |
203,457 |
217,932 |
421,389 |
Secondary School age (14-17) |
62,160 |
61,378 |
123,538 |
66,328 |
65,493 |
131,821 |
75,378 |
74,429 |
149,807 |
89,341 |
88,217 |
177,559 |
Youth population (15-29) |
163,048 |
197,894 |
360,942 |
173,981 |
211,163 |
385,143 |
197,718 |
239,974 |
437,692 |
234,346 |
284,429 |
518,775 |
Reproductive age (15-49) |
261,843 |
313,692 |
575,535 |
279,400 |
334,725 |
614,125 |
317,520 |
380,395 |
697,915 |
376,342 |
450,864 |
827,206 |
Labour force (15-64) |
298,496 |
352,854 |
651,350 |
318,510 |
376,513 |
695,024 |
361,967 |
427,884 |
789,851 |
429,023 |
507,150 |
936,173 |
Aged population 64+ |
18,026 |
24,349 |
42,375 |
19,235 |
25,982 |
45,216 |
21,859 |
29,526 |
51,385 |
25,908 |
34,996 |
60,905 |
Source: Provincial Planning Office
Under 1 Age Group: Based on the 2009 population census, the county has an infant mortality rate of 90 per 1000 live births (90/1000).These are infants, who die before they celebrate their first birthday. The Government should therefore enhance the provision of mosquito nets and anti malarial drugs for the children and mothers in line with the millennium goal number 4 of reducing child mortality. The county is a malaria prone zone and therefore appropriate measures have to be put in place to reduce the number of malaria related deaths. Emphasis should also be put in educating mothers on the importance of immunization against other childhood infectious disease like polio, tuberculosis and measles.
Under 5 Age Group: This age group accounts for 18.5 % of the total population in the county. In order to adequately serve the interest of this age cohort, there is need to expandand make accessible the early childhood development centres especially in the rural areas. This can be done through setting up of more centres in primary schools, offering quality training and employing more ECD teachers.
Age group 6-13 (Primary): The population of this age group is estimated to be 312,843 in 2012 consisting of 151,049 boys and 161,795 girls. This number is estimated to rise to 171,657 and 183,870 for boys and girls respectfully in 2015 and to 203,457 and 217,932 for boys and girls in 2017 respectfully on 2017. The increasing population of this age group calls for increased investment in basic education facilities and to develop more vocational training facilities to absorb dropouts.
Age Group 14-17 (Secondary): The population for this age group is projected at 131,821 in 2012 representing 66,328 males and 65,493 females respectively10.7 per cent of the total population of the county. The increasing population of this age group implies that the county will need to create openings in training institutions as well as employment opportunities to absorb them; the population is estimated at 149,807 consisting of 75,378 males and 74,429 females. In 2017 this population is projected at 177,559 with 89, 341 boys and 88,217 females. It is clear that the number of males is more than females in this age group. This group is currently the potential labour force and the challenges are to ensure that jobs are available to absorb those who will not pursue further education. The challenge is to ensure they acquire the necessary skills to fill into the competitive job market hence there is need to increase the number of middle colleges and universities.
Age Group 15-30 (Youth population): The youthful population is estimated at 385,143 in 2012 representing 31.4% of the total county population. Sixty one per cent (61%) of the unemployed persons in the county are within this age group. This population is expected to rise to 437,692 and 518,774 in 2015 and 2017 respectfully. Therefore, this calls for the county to implement projects and programmes that will address unemployment including capacity building on entrepreneurship so that they can be self employed and effectively contribute to the socio-economic development of the county. The county also needs to scale up campaigns against drug abuse and HIV/AIDS infections among the youths.
Age group 15-49 (Female fertility): This group consists of female population of childbearing age. In 2012, the population is projected at 614,125 persons, where 334,725 are females representing 54.5 percent. This relatively high number of females of the child bearing and which is expected to increase over time is likely to lead to an increase in the number of children. This calls for establishment of more pre primary schools and adequately equipping the existing health facilities with essential drugs. There is also need to enhance maternal education on the use of family planning methods to reduce the fertility rate in order to maintain the population at manageable levels. As the number of females in this age group is expected to increase over time, there will be need to provide adequate personnel to ensure safe motherhood as well as healthy reproductive life for mothers and children.
Age group 15-64 (Labour force): The County’s labour force is estimated at 695,024 people of which 318,510 are males and 376,513 are females. This age group represents 56.7% of the total county population. Most of the labour force is unskilled with only a small percentage engaged in formal employment. The rest are involved in agriculture and related activities where they practice small scale subsistence farming. It is estimated that only 46% of the total labour force is literate implying that only a relatively small population can be absorbed into the formal employment. There is need for the youth to enroll into vocational training institutions so as to enhance their skills in various areas in both the formal and informal sectors.
Age Population 65+: The dependency ratio in the county currently stands at 71:100. Based on the 2009 census, the number of people aged 65 years and above in 2012 is estimated to be 45,216 and it is projected to be 51,385 and 60,905 in 2015 and 2017 respectfully. Due to the steady rise in the number of people falling in this age group, disposable income that could be saved and used for investment purposes is diverted to consumption thereby limiting the
capital base of majority of the people. To curb, the working class to be advised to save for the old age and the government to assist those ones without ability through cash transfers programmes.
Population distribution for major urban Centres
The major urban centres in the county are Kisii, Suneka, Ogembo and Tabaka among others. The population projections for the above urban centres are analyzed in Table 3 below.
2009 Census |
2012 projected |
2015 projected |
2017 projected |
|||||||||
Age Group |
M |
F |
T |
M |
F |
T |
M |
F |
T |
M |
F |
T |
Kisii |
31,329 |
30,563 |
61,892 |
33,368 |
32,552 |
65,920 |
35,538 |
34,669 |
70,207 |
37,064 |
36,158 |
73,223 |
Suneka |
2,620 |
2,900 |
5,520 |
2,791 |
3,089 |
5880 |
2,972 |
3,290 |
6,262 |
3,100 |
3,431 |
6,531 |
Ogembo |
1,714 |
1,761 |
3,475 |
1,826 |
1,876 |
3,702 |
1,944 |
1,998 |
3,942 |
2,028 |
2,083 |
4,111 |
Tabaka |
6,100 |
6,600 |
12,700 |
6,497 |
7,030 |
13,527 |
6,920 |
7,487 |
14,406 |
7,217 |
7,808 |
15,025 |
Total |
42,763 |
41,824 |
82,587 |
44,482 |
44,497 |
88,989 |
47,374 |
47,444 |
94,818 |
49,409 |
49,480 |
98,890 |
Table 3 Population distribution for major urban centres
Source: provincial planning office
From table 3, it is clear that the total population of the major urban centres was 82,587 in
2009 and projected at 88, 989 in 2012. By 2015, the same population is projected at 94,818
and 98,890 in 2017 respectively. Kisii has the largest population given that it is home for major businesses and institutions of higher learning and banks.Tabaka’s population is increasing due to the soapstone mining in the area. Suneka is along the Kisii-Migori road hence making it possible for its residents to commute and its close proximity to Kisii makes it possible for people to stay there and work in Kisii.
Population density and distribution
The county population is distributed amongst the twenty one (24) divisions in nine (9) districts. The population densities are provided for each of the administrative units as illustrated in table 4.
Table 4 Population distribution by Administrative units
|
2012
|
|
2015
|
|
2017
|
|
||||||
DIVISION
|
M |
F |
T |
D |
M |
F |
T |
D |
M |
F |
T |
D |
Keumbu |
27933 |
30755 |
58688 |
827.5 |
29749 |
32755 |
62505 |
881.3 |
31027 |
34162 |
65190 |
919.2 |
Mosocho |
68364 |
72367 |
140731 |
1348.4 |
72809 |
77073 |
149882 |
1436.1 |
75937 |
80384 |
156321 |
1497.8 |
Kiogoro |
38707 |
40794 |
79501 |
1253.6 |
41224 |
43447 |
84671 |
1335.1 |
42995 |
45313 |
88308 |
1392.4 |
Nyamarambe |
23464 |
25535 |
48999 |
712.2 |
24990 |
27196 |
52186 |
758.5 |
26063 |
28364 |
54427 |
791.1 |
Etago |
20184 |
23832 |
44017 |
796.0 |
21497 |
25382 |
46879 |
847.7 |
22420 |
26472 |
48893 |
884.1 |
Tabaka |
16450 |
17755 |
34205 |
1033.4 |
17520 |
18910 |
36430 |
1100.6 |
18273 |
19722 |
37994 |
1147.9 |
Moticho |
21332 |
22871 |
44202 |
711.8 |
22719 |
24358 |
47077 |
758.1 |
23695 |
25404 |
49099 |
790.6 |
Suneka |
33491 |
37130 |
70621 |
987.7 |
35668 |
39544 |
75213 |
1051.9 |
37201 |
41243 |
78444 |
1097.1 |
Gesonso |
14338 |
15158 |
29497 |
960.8 |
15271 |
16144 |
31415 |
1023.3 |
15927 |
16837 |
32764 |
1067.2 |
Igonga |
10306 |
11654 |
21960 |
776.0 |
10976 |
12412 |
23388 |
826.4 |
11447 |
12945 |
24393 |
861.9 |
Kiamokama |
29819 |
33368 |
63187 |
880.0 |
31758 |
35538 |
67296 |
937.3 |
33122 |
37064 |
70187 |
977.5 |
Masaba |
31586 |
35242 |
66828 |
742.5 |
33640 |
37533 |
71173 |
790.8 |
35085 |
39146 |
74231 |
824.8 |
Ogembo |
28834 |
38801 |
67635 |
936.8 |
30709 |
41324 |
72033 |
997.7 |
32028 |
43099 |
75127 |
1040.5 |
Kenyenya |
30259 |
27666 |
57925 |
991.9 |
32227 |
29465 |
61691 |
1056.4 |
33611 |
30730 |
64341 |
1101.7 |
Ibencho |
18880 |
20370 |
39250 |
826.3 |
20107 |
21694 |
41802 |
880.0 |
20971 |
22626 |
43597 |
917.8 |
Magena |
12165 |
13103 |
25268 |
979.4 |
12957 |
13955 |
26911 |
1043.1 |
13513 |
14554 |
28067 |
1087.9 |
Magenche |
17116 |
18781 |
35897 |
1040.5 |
18229 |
20002 |
38231 |
1108.1 |
19012 |
20861 |
39873 |
1155.7 |
Nyamache |
30847 |
34132 |
64979 |
794.4 |
32853 |
36351 |
69204 |
846.0 |
34264 |
37913 |
72177 |
882.4 |
Nyacheki |
32472 |
37029 |
69501 |
863.4 |
34584 |
39437 |
74021 |
919.5 |
36070 |
41131 |
77200 |
959.0 |
Sameta |
32723 |
35243 |
67965 |
871.4 |
34851 |
37534 |
72385 |
928.0 |
36348 |
39147 |
75494 |
967.9 |
Marani |
51815 |
58814 |
110630 |
893.6 |
55185 |
62639 |
117824 |
951.7 |
57555 |
65329 |
122885 |
992.6 |
Total |
586293 |
640989 |
1227282 |
907.2 |
624417 |
682671 |
1307088 |
966.2 |
651239 |
711994 |
1363233 |
1007.7 |
The table above shows, that Mosocho division is the most populated with a population of 132,131 people comprising 11.47% of the county’s population while and Igonga division is least populated with a population of 20,618 which is of 1.79% of the total county population. The high population in Mosocho division can be attributed to the high agricultural potential and the fact that it is home to Kisii town which is highly populated has become an economic hub in the region.
The county is divided into seven constituencies namely; Kitutu Chache, Nyaribari Chache, Nyaribari Masaba, Bonchari, Bomachoge, Bobasi and South Mugirango whose population distribution is illustrated in table 5.
Table 5: Population distribution and density by constituency
Constituency |
Density (Persons/Km²) |
Male |
Female |
Total |
Kitutu Chache |
1,121.0 |
120,179 |
131,181 |
251,360 |
Nyaribari Chache |
1,040.6 |
66,640 |
71,549 |
138,189 |
Nyaribari Masaba |
811.3 |
61,405 |
68,610 |
130,015 |
Bonchari |
908.2 |
58.135 |
63,942 |
122,077 |
Bomachoge |
955.0 |
107,254 |
118,721 |
225,975 |
Bobasi |
843.1 |
96,042 |
106,404 |
202,446 |
South Mugirango |
813.4 |
81,430 |
89,993 |
171,423 |
Total |
907.2 |
586,293 |
640,989 |
1,226,973 |
Source: Provincial Planning office
From table 5, it is clear that Kitutu Chache is the most populated constituency in the county with a population density of 976.6. It has a population of 223,356 comprising of 19.4% of the county population. This high population is due to its vastness and proximity to Kisii town. On the other hand Bonchari constituency is the least populated in the county with a population of 114,615.This is due to small coverage area of 127km².