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Demographic Features

 Population size and composition

Based on the 2009 Population and Housing Census, the county population is 1,152,282 comprising 550,464 males and 601,818 females respectively. This population is projected at 1,226,873 in 2012 consisting of 536,062 males and 640,811 females. With a growth rate of 2.1%, the population is estimated to be 1,306,652 in 2015 with 624,171 males and 682,481 females and is projected at 1,362,779 with 650,982 males and 711,797 females by 2017.Tables 1 shows population projections for the county by age cohorts and by gender respectively.

 

Table 1: Population projection by Age Cohort

 

2009

2012

2015

2017

Age

Group

M

F

T

M

F

T

M

F

T

M

F

T

0–4

97,645

96,729

194,374

104,001

103,025

207,025

110,763

109,724

220,488

115,521

114,437

229,959

5–9

85,748

84,786

170,534

91,329

90,305

181,634

97,268

96,177

193,445

101,446

100,308

201,754

10-14

77,141

76,753

153,894

82,162

81,749

163,911

87,505

87,065

174,569

91,263

90,804

182,068

15-19

66,682

68,192

134,874

71,022

72,630

143,653

75,641

77,353

152,994

78,890

80,676

159,566

20-24

46,460

64,682

111,142

49,484

68,892

118,376

52,702

73,372

126,074

54,966

76,524

131,489

25-29

36,163

47,985

84,148

38,517

51,108

89,625

41,021

54,432

95,453

42,783

56,770

99,553

30-34

29,490

33,742

63,232

31,409

35,938

67,348

33,452

38,275

71,727

34,889

39,919

74,808

35-39

24,162

29,261

53,423

25,735

31,166

56,900

27,408

33,192

60,600

28,585

34,618

63,203

40-44

17,569

20,529

38,098

18,713

21,865

40,578

19,929

23,287

43,216

20,785

24,287

45,073

45-49

18,805

21,571

40,376

20,029

22,975

43,004

21,331

24,469

45,800

22,248

25,520

47,768

50-54

14,314

15,929

30,243

15,246

16,966

32,211

16,237

18,069

34,306

16,935

18,845

35,780

55-59

10,690

10,719

21,409

11,386

11,417

22,802

12,126

12,159

24,285

12,647

12,681

25,328

60-64

8,351

8,696

17,047

8,895

9,262

18,157

9,473

9,864

19,337

9,880

10,288

20,168

65-69

5,255

6,061

11,316

5,597

6,455

12,053

5,961

6,875

12,836

6,217

7,171

13,388

70-74

4,501

5,661

10,162

4,794

6,029

10,823

5,106

6,422

11,527

5,325

6,697

12,022

75-79

3,096

3,753

6,849

3,298

3,997

7,295

3,512

4,257

7,769

3,663

4,440

8,103

80+

4,175

6,602

10,777

4,447

7,032

11,478

4,736

7,489

12,225

4,939

7,811

12,750

 

550,464

601,818

1,152,282

586,062

640,811

1,226,873

624,171

682,481

1,306,653

650,982

711,797

1,362,779

       Source: Provincial Planning Office

It is estimated that in 2015 the total population in the county shall have risen from 1,226,873 to 1,306,653 with an increase of 79,780. In 2017, the population is estimated at 1,362,779. This increase will call for an expansion of educational and health facilities. The school going population will increase by 13.6% and 34.7% in 2015 and 2017 respectfully with girls being the majority.

 

Population projections for selected Age Groups

The selected age groups in the county are, children under 1, and children under 5, primary school age, Secondary school age, youth population, reproductive age, labour force and the aged population .The projections for these groups are presented in table 2 below.

Table 2: Population Projections for Selected Age Groups

 

2009 census

2012 projected

2015 projected

2017 projected

Age Group

M

F

T

M

F

T

M

F

T

M

F

T

Under 1

21,990

21,844

43,834

23,464

23,309

46,773

26,666

26,489

53,155

31,606

31,396

63,002

Under 5

106,751

105,872

212,623

113,909

112,971

226,880

129,450

128,384

257,834

153,431

152,168

305,599

Primary School age (6-13)

141,557

151,628

293,185

151,049

161,795

312,843

171,657

183,870

355,527

203,457

217,932

421,389

 Secondary School age (14-17)

62,160

61,378

123,538

66,328

65,493

131,821

75,378

74,429

149,807

89,341

88,217

177,559

Youth population (15-29)

163,048

197,894

360,942

173,981

211,163

385,143

197,718

239,974

437,692

234,346

284,429

518,775

Reproductive age (15-49)

261,843

313,692

575,535

279,400

334,725

614,125

317,520

380,395

697,915

376,342

450,864

827,206

Labour force (15-64)

298,496

352,854

651,350

318,510

376,513

695,024

361,967

427,884

789,851

429,023

507,150

936,173

Aged population 64+

18,026

24,349

42,375

19,235

25,982

45,216

21,859

29,526

51,385

25,908

34,996

60,905

Source:  Provincial Planning Office

Under 1 Age Group: Based on the 2009 population census, the county has an infant mortality rate of 90 per 1000 live births (90/1000).These are infants, who die before they celebrate their first birthday.  The Government should therefore enhance the provision of mosquito nets and anti malarial drugs for the children and mothers in line with the millennium goal number 4 of reducing child mortality.  The county is a malaria prone zone and therefore appropriate measures have to be put in place to reduce the number of malaria related deaths.   Emphasis should also be put in educating mothers on the importance of immunization against other childhood infectious disease like polio, tuberculosis and measles.

Under 5 Age Group: This age group accounts for 18.5 % of the total population in the county. In order to adequately serve the interest of this age cohort, there is need to expandand make accessible the early childhood development centres especially in the rural areas.  This can be done through setting up of more centres in primary schools, offering quality training and employing more ECD teachers.

Age group 6-13 (Primary):  The population of this age group is estimated to be 312,843 in 2012 consisting of 151,049 boys and 161,795 girls. This number is estimated to rise to 171,657 and 183,870 for boys and girls respectfully in 2015 and to 203,457 and 217,932 for boys and girls in 2017 respectfully on 2017. The increasing population of this age group calls for increased investment in basic education facilities and to develop more vocational training facilities to absorb dropouts.

Age Group 14-17 (Secondary):  The population for this age group is projected at 131,821 in 2012 representing 66,328 males and 65,493 females respectively10.7 per cent of the total population of the county.  The increasing population of this age group implies that the county will need to create openings in training institutions as well as employment opportunities to absorb them; the population is estimated at 149,807 consisting of 75,378 males and 74,429 females. In 2017 this population is projected at 177,559 with 89, 341 boys and 88,217 females. It is clear that the number of males is more than females in this age group.  This group is currently the potential labour force and the challenges are to ensure that jobs are available to absorb those who will not pursue further education.  The challenge is to ensure they acquire the necessary skills to fill into the competitive job market hence there is need to increase the number of middle colleges and universities.

Age Group 15-30 (Youth population):  The youthful population is estimated at 385,143 in 2012 representing 31.4% of the total county population. Sixty one per cent (61%) of the unemployed persons in the county are within this age group. This population is expected to rise to 437,692 and 518,774 in 2015 and 2017 respectfully. Therefore, this calls for the county to implement projects and programmes that will address unemployment including capacity building on entrepreneurship so that they can be self employed and effectively contribute to the socio-economic development of the county.  The county also needs to scale up campaigns against drug abuse and HIV/AIDS infections among the youths.

Age group 15-49 (Female fertility):   This group consists of female population of childbearing age.  In 2012, the population is projected at 614,125 persons, where 334,725 are females representing 54.5 percent. This relatively high number of females of the child bearing and which is expected to increase over time is likely to lead to an increase in the number of children.  This calls for establishment of more pre primary schools and adequately equipping the existing health facilities with essential drugs.  There is also need to enhance maternal education on the use of family planning methods to reduce the fertility rate in order to maintain the population at manageable levels. As the number of females in this age group is expected to increase over time, there will be need to provide adequate personnel to ensure safe motherhood as well as healthy reproductive life for mothers and children.

Age group 15-64 (Labour force):  The County’s labour force is estimated at 695,024 people of which 318,510 are males and 376,513 are females. This age group represents 56.7% of the total county population. Most of the labour force is unskilled with only a small percentage engaged in formal employment. The rest are involved in agriculture and related activities where they practice small scale subsistence farming. It is estimated that only 46% of the total labour force is literate implying that only a relatively small population can be absorbed into the formal employment.  There is need for the youth to enroll into vocational training institutions so as to enhance their skills in various areas in both the formal and informal sectors.

Age Population 65+:  The dependency ratio in the county currently stands at 71:100.   Based on   the 2009 census, the number of people aged 65 years and above in 2012 is estimated to be 45,216 and it is projected to be 51,385 and 60,905 in 2015 and 2017 respectfully. Due to the steady rise in the number of people falling in this age group, disposable income that could be saved and used for investment purposes is diverted to consumption thereby limiting the

capital base of majority of the people. To curb, the working class to be advised to save for the old age and the government to assist those ones without ability through cash transfers programmes.

Population distribution for major urban Centres

The major urban centres in the county are Kisii, Suneka, Ogembo and Tabaka among others. The population projections for the above urban centres are analyzed in Table 3 below.

2009 Census

2012 projected

2015 projected

2017 projected

Age Group

M

F

T

M

F

T

M

F

T

M

F

T

Kisii

31,329

30,563

    61,892

        33,368

    32,552

    65,920

35,538

34,669

70,207

37,064

36,158

73,223

Suneka

2,620

2,900

     5,520

          2,791

     3,089

     5880

2,972

3,290

6,262

3,100

3,431

6,531

Ogembo

1,714

1,761

     3,475

1,826         

1,876    

3,702    

1,944

1,998

3,942

2,028

2,083

4,111

Tabaka

6,100

6,600

    12,700

6,497         

7,030     

13,527   

6,920

7,487

14,406

7,217

7,808

15,025

Total

42,763

41,824

82,587

44,482

44,497

88,989

47,374

47,444

94,818

49,409

49,480

98,890

Table 3 Population distribution for major urban centres

Source: provincial planning office

From table 3, it is clear that the total population of the major urban centres was 82,587 in

2009 and projected at 88, 989 in 2012. By 2015, the same population is projected at 94,818

and 98,890 in 2017 respectively. Kisii has the largest population given that it is home for major businesses and institutions of higher learning and banks.Tabaka’s population is increasing due to the soapstone mining in the area. Suneka is along the Kisii-Migori road hence making it possible for its residents to commute and its close proximity to Kisii makes it possible for people to stay there and work in Kisii.

 

Population density and distribution

The county population is distributed amongst the twenty one (24) divisions in nine (9) districts.  The population densities are provided for each of the administrative units as illustrated in table 4.

Table 4 Population distribution by Administrative units

 

2012

 

 

2015

 

 

2017

 

 

DIVISION

 

M

F

T

D

M

F

T

D

M

F

T

D

Keumbu

27933

30755

58688

827.5

29749

32755

62505

881.3

31027

34162

65190

919.2

Mosocho

68364

72367

140731

1348.4

72809

77073

149882

1436.1

75937

80384

156321

1497.8

Kiogoro

38707

40794

79501

1253.6

41224

43447

84671

1335.1

42995

45313

88308

1392.4

Nyamarambe

23464

25535

48999

712.2

24990

27196

52186

758.5

26063

28364

54427

791.1

Etago

20184

23832

44017

796.0

21497

25382

46879

847.7

22420

26472

48893

884.1

Tabaka

16450

17755

34205

1033.4

17520

18910

36430

1100.6

18273

19722

37994

1147.9

Moticho

21332

22871

44202

711.8

22719

24358

47077

758.1

23695

25404

49099

790.6

Suneka

33491

37130

70621

987.7

35668

39544

75213

1051.9

37201

41243

78444

1097.1

Gesonso

14338

15158

29497

960.8

15271

16144

31415

1023.3

15927

16837

32764

1067.2

Igonga

10306

11654

21960

776.0

10976

12412

23388

826.4

11447

12945

24393

861.9

Kiamokama

29819

33368

63187

880.0

31758

35538

67296

937.3

33122

37064

70187

977.5

Masaba

31586

35242

66828

742.5

33640

37533

71173

790.8

35085

39146

74231

824.8

Ogembo

28834

38801

67635

936.8

30709

41324

72033

997.7

32028

43099

75127

1040.5

Kenyenya

30259

27666

57925

991.9

32227

29465

61691

1056.4

33611

30730

64341

1101.7

Ibencho

18880

20370

39250

826.3

20107

21694

41802

880.0

20971

22626

43597

917.8

Magena

12165

13103

25268

979.4

12957

13955

26911

1043.1

13513

14554

28067

1087.9

Magenche

17116

18781

35897

1040.5

18229

20002

38231

1108.1

19012

20861

39873

1155.7

Nyamache

30847

34132

64979

794.4

32853

36351

69204

846.0

34264

37913

72177

882.4

Nyacheki

32472

37029

69501

863.4

34584

39437

74021

919.5

36070

41131

77200

959.0

Sameta

32723

35243

67965

871.4

34851

37534

72385

928.0

36348

39147

75494

967.9

Marani

51815

58814

110630

893.6

55185

62639

117824

951.7

57555

65329

122885

992.6

Total

586293

640989

1227282

907.2

624417

682671

1307088

966.2

651239

711994

1363233

1007.7

 

The table above shows, that Mosocho division is the most populated with a population of 132,131 people comprising 11.47% of the county’s population while  and Igonga division is least populated with a population of 20,618 which is of 1.79% of the total county population. The high population in Mosocho division can be attributed to the high agricultural potential and the fact that it is home to Kisii town which is highly populated has become an economic hub in the region.

The county is divided into seven constituencies namely; Kitutu Chache, Nyaribari Chache, Nyaribari Masaba, Bonchari, Bomachoge, Bobasi and South Mugirango whose population distribution is illustrated in table 5.

Table 5: Population distribution and density by constituency

Constituency

Density (Persons/Km²)

Male

Female

Total

Kitutu Chache

 1,121.0

120,179

131,181

251,360

Nyaribari Chache

1,040.6

 66,640

  71,549

138,189

Nyaribari Masaba

811.3

  61,405

  68,610

130,015

Bonchari

908.2

  58.135

  63,942

122,077

Bomachoge

 955.0

 107,254

     118,721

225,975

Bobasi

 843.1

  96,042

     106,404

202,446

South Mugirango

 813.4

  81,430

       89,993

171,423

Total

907.2

586,293

     640,989

1,226,973

Source: Provincial Planning office

From table 5, it is clear that Kitutu Chache is the most populated constituency in the county with a population density of 976.6. It has a population of 223,356 comprising of 19.4% of the county population. This high population is due to its vastness and proximity to Kisii town. On the other hand Bonchari constituency is the least populated in the county with a population of 114,615.This is due to small coverage area of 127km².